Unicycle #7 - Personal Predictions
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Hello dear friends,
Three weeks ago I asked if you wanted to read about the life-changing magic of prediction. My pitch was that
If you want to be more right, understand how things work, and improve your life, the best thing you can do right now is to start predicting the future. Predictions are at the heart of the scientific search for truth. They are skin in the game. Their absence is why the news sucks. Betting on the future is the one weird trick to get closer to reality.
This week I sat down to flesh this idea out and discovered that Eli Dourado mostly wrote my post for me. Specifically, he makes the case that when we believe something that’s wrong, we often have no incentive to change our mind. But we’re reluctant to bet on our beliefs because the thought of losing money reveals to us our own uncertainty. Dourado argues that wide adoption of betting would make us better thinkers. Imagine if it were easy to get paid for being right, and if we expected our politicians and news anchors to make bets and talk about what bets other successful predictors are making.
Suppose your uncle says Trump has the silent majority and there is no way he will lose the 2020 election; offer him a bet. Tell him you are not so sure, but since he claims there is “no way” Trump will lose, would he give you 10:1 odds? With his brain switched into cost-avoidance mode, he may hem and haw before trying to talk you down to even odds or refusing the bet entirely. The offer of a bet reduces his certainty because it makes him think in terms of what he has to give up to espouse that position. “A bet,” says Alex Tabarrok, “is a tax on bullshit.”
The whole article is worth a read if you’re curious about blockchain-based prediction markets of the future. But there’s a simpler, more personal form of “betting as error correction” you can do for yourself: start predicting things in your life.
The easiest thing to start with is predicting whether an action will bring you joy.
About to buy something new? Ask yourself what the odds are that you’ll still enjoy it a month from now.
Planning a vacation? How likely are you to feel refreshed when you return?
Thinking of taking up meditation? You get the picture…
Betting money is optional. Just taking the time to reflect on your expectations is valuable in itself. And if you do want to get serious, I found a site called PredictionBook that lets you enter your predictions and tracks your success rate. I only have a few in there, but I’m just getting started
A concrete prediction takes your mental picture of how things work and smashes it into reality, pushing it to fit the nooks and crannies better. I’m committed to seeking truth and seeing the world as clearly as I can. That’s why I’m excited to bet more. If you care about what’s true, bet with me. What do you think I’m likely to disagree with you on?
Cheers,
Grin
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